Saturday, 11 October 2014

Familiar four aim to entertain - SFC Semi Final Predictions


The football championship dearly craves a sixty minute explosion. Three of the four quarter finals were settled by a margin of eleven points or more. The semis on Saturday and Sunday promise at least one memorable tie to inject life into a rather jaded competition. The same four teams do battle as last year. Ballinacourty and The Nire start as favourites to recreate the 2008 final pairing.

11 October

Ballinacourty v Stradbally (7.30 at Fraher Field)
A repeat of last year’s county final and possibly the biggest obstacle to back to back titles for Ballinacourty.

They crashed out to the same opponent two years ago when attempting a title defence. They have won fourteen championship games in a row since that 2-12 to 0-12 defeat back in October of 2012.

Last year’s county final saw Ballinacourty rule the middle third under both primary and breaking ball. They also kept their opponents scoreless for a staggering 34 minutes. It’s hard to envisage a reprise this time around. To beat the Reds, Courty must move the ball at pace and avoid errors in possession. Their handling was superb against St Saviours in treacherous weather last Friday night.

Mark Ferncombe gave a remarkable solo performance from centre forward. He scored 2-7 and assisted two other goals. The Reds cannot allow him to play as he wishes. Will Michael Walsh take up the challenge? Courty’s attacking threat doesn’t solely revolve around one source however. Nine different players scored against St Saviours.

By their own admission, Stradbally didn’t set the world alight during the group stages. They returned to their old selves against Kilrossanty however and crushed the contest well before half time. All the usual suspects revived that spark. John Coffey and Michael Walsh interrupted attacks at one end with the Ahearnes driving things on at the other. They are hunting down a thirteenth county final appearances in sixteen years. No question marks surround their desire for more. Their starting fifteen in the quarter final showed five changes from last year’s county final. One of those new faces county minor Michael Sweeney is leaving his imprint on each game. He has scored goals against The Nire Ballinameela and Kilrossanty.

The holders appear to have the fluency, energy and pace to get behind a Stradbally side who have leaked six goals. They may need to depend on their long range shooting if the door is slammed shut in front of goal. They are hitting around 22 points per game and bring the best defence in the championship to the table.

Two years ago, Stradbally outfought them in this fixture. This will test their hunger to retain the Conway Cup. Courty by a kick of a ball.

Odds: Ballinacourty 4/7 Draw 13/2 Stradbally 7/4
Prediction: Ballinacourty

12 October 

The Nire v An Rinn (7.00 at Fraher Field)
Can An Rinn reach their first final since 1925? They are certainly edging closer to the top three. The twenty one point drubbing administered by Stradbally (3-18 to 1-3) at this stage last year didn’t sweep them off course. They are back for another attempt.

The Gaeltacht side opened up a clear gap between themselves and the rest of the field with decisive wins over Clashmore, Kilrossanty, Ardmore, Rathgormack and De La Salle. Donie Breathnach remains their marquee forward with a rare ability to kick scores off both feet. Lorcan Ó Corraoin and Fergal Ó Cuirrín supported him in the quarter final but injury continues to curtail the influence of Liam Ó Lonáin. They could be more ruthless in chasing green flags. Amazingly, they haven’t conceded a goal in over six hours of championship football. Questions arise over their midfield and their physicality and those will be addressed on Sunday night. They must hit the ground running here or risk another traumatic experience.

This has the makings of a flowing game of football with The Nire shooting close to 19 points per game. It’s six years since they last captured ultimate honours. They have lost two finals, two semi finals and a quarter final since.

The Nire blasted opponents out of their way during the group games but their scoring rate has decreased in the last two games recording 1-9 and 1-8 respectively against Gaultier and Rathgormack. Four weeks have passed since that quarter final arm wrestle which gives plenty of time for any injury worries to heal. They struggled to break down Rathgormack but had enough forward options to get them through. An Rinn will not bring the same sort of defensive strategy here which will suit their forwards. Shane Ryan and Conor Gleeson should play more prominent parts. A weakness persists under the high ball but this may not be put under the microscope.

Little separates the sides in recent collisions. In the 2011 quarter final, The Nire won by two points (0-12 to 1-7). During the group stages last year, the sides couldn’t be split at Cappoquin (1-10 to 0-13).

The Nire should be able to deal sufficiently with playmaker Donie Breathnach and finally break An Rinn’s resistance at the opposite end. The Ballymacarbry side have scored twelve goals thus far compared to five for their opponents.

Odds: The Nire 1/3 Draw 15/2 An Rinn 11/4
Prediction: The Nire

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