A qualifier state of mind - Offaly v Waterford preview

 

 

Ollie Baker and Michael Ryan are looking to rebound through the backdoor on Saturday night but there is a noticeable contrast in how both counties handled their respective defeats and the mood music surrounding this qualifier. In Offaly, there is a growing air of optimism that they are ready to take a championship scalp of substance. A fiery performance against the All Ireland champions offered evidence of a bit of steel emerging after years in the wilderness. Waterford roll into town with nagging doubts and a few injury headaches. There is trepidation amongst the travelling faithful. In such circumstances, a good start is essential to repair the damage of defeat. If Offaly hit an early groove backed by the locals, the doubts quickly creep in.

There’s also a physical battle alongside the mental battle. According to Michael Duignan during the week on WLR FM, twelve of the Offaly team are over six foot tall. They wired into the Cats in an over exuberant manner at times as their yellow card count of five shows. Eoin Larkin also converted eleven placed balls so Baker may try to reign them in a notch. Most of the players are well seasoned (around the mid twenties to early thirties) at this stage and they are fed up of near misses. They have been around the block to a certain extent and they are keen to improve their recent championship record. They drew with Galway in Croke Park three years ago before losing the replay in O’Moore Park and followed that up with defeats to Dublin and Cork (by a point) in 2011. Last year brought a win over a Wexford but Galway put an end to their Leinster campaign in a crazy contest (5-23 to 3-15). Cork again got in their way after another valiant effort away from home. Since losing to Waterford in the 2008 qualifier, they have only won four championship games out of thirteen.

They are packed with power and gave their fans cause for enthusiasm with how they held firm when the black and amber arrived. Waterford showed for long stretches against Clare however that they can stand up and use their muscle around the middle. Most of the experience is stored from numbers 5 to 12 on Michael Ryan’s team sheet and these are the men who will have the most influence over the outcome. In this regard, Jamie Nagle’s presence is key. He made 21 plays in Thurles three weeks ago.

With the niggles and knocks, the management team had little room to manoeuvre with regard to the chosen fifteen but they have still made a couple of interesting decisions. Shane O’Sullivan’s move to the half forward line seems like a ploy to bulk up this line but arguably he was the most effective Waterford player on the field during the first half of the Munster quarter final at midfield. Darragh Fives is back where he belongs in the defence which should free up Kevin Moran to roam forward with more vigour. Shane Fives is rewarded for a solid league campaign to make a long awaited championship debut at corner back. O’Keeffe ahead of O’Regan must have been marginal but perhaps hints at a different puck out strategy. The Ballygunner number may vary the length of his drives. Brian O’Sullivan also gets the nod ahead of Pauric Mahony and although this is only his third championship start, he carries a goal threat.

Waterford may need two to emerge from O'Connor Park but all the obvious first goalscorers are in the Offaly attack. Shane Walsh’s continued misfortune robs them of both a target man and a reliable goal getter. In his absence, Maurice Shanahan is on the brink of making a big statement. If he can sustain a seventy minute effort at full forward, or elsewhere, the burden eases on the likes of Jake Dillon and Jamie Barron to produce a considerable total. 0-38 in thirteen championship appearances is a reasonable return but he can cut loose as we saw in glimpses against Clare. It would also prove the perfect time to end his goal scoring drought in championship fare. His free taking also must be squeaky clean. Three missed frees in the first half last time out is a stat that cannot be repeated by the visitors.

A matter for management is who will pick up Shane Dooley and Joe Bergin. Noel Connors may be given the man marking responsibilities for Dooley while Shane Fives or Liam Lawlor can match the 6 foot 4 inch Bergin. The former was restricted to five placed balls against Kilkenny but seldom is he kept so quiet on championship Sunday. With 10-105 over 22 championship games, his average is above six points per game. He also posted 4-35 during the league. In his formative years, Bergin bossed the 2006 league meeting between these counties and also bagged a hat trick against Limerick in 2008. His double blast the first day out brought his championship goal return to 12. Five of the six starting forwards can claim a championship green flag for the Faithful while only Jake Dillon and Seamus Prendergast can say the same on the opposite side.

On nights like these, the little things add up. The advantage of operating in Division 1A shouldn’t be discounted especially when Offaly’s campaign is analysed closely. An escape route from Division 1B never looked likely as their challenge fizzled out. While they ran table toppers Limerick and Dublin close, they failed to dispatch the minnows in an unspectacular campaign overall. They relied on a Joe Bergin goal two minutes from time to nab the points away from Carlow. They closed out their programme with another narrow two point escape up in Antrim. Their third two point win came in between against Wexford.

The performance of James McGrath will also come under intense scrutiny. Will he punish the Déise defence so severely on this occasion? Colin Ryan profited from some dubious decision making to the tune of four frees early in the second half. There was a lack of clarity as to what he deemed as foul play and that will need to be cleared up.

The heat is on both sides and it will hinge on who can handle it better. Jittery shooting was a disappointing aspect in their opening defeats as Offaly only registered nine points and Waterford shot 15 wides. Plenty points towards Offaly but Waterford can recover their composure. Provided that they can grab a hold of midfield and absorb the early barrage physically and mentally, there is sufficient quality to leave the Faithful waiting for another rising. The half back trio are capable of hovering up ball and reducing the pressure on the last line of defence. The quality of ball into Currams, Bergin and Dooley will make or break Ollie Baker’s men. Those defensive match-ups are ones that Michael Ryan must judge correctly or pay the consequences. They should sharpen up from the squanderama suffered up front in the Clare match and a couple of early scores will settle them down. It’s about keeping a firm focus on the task at hand and dispelling the negativity for seventy minutes. The departed and the walking wounded have hindered Ryan’s cause but they retain enough big game players to survive until another Saturday. Waterford still know the ropes that bit better to avoid the June exit door.

All Ireland Hurling Preliminary Round Qualifier

Offaly v Waterford
7.00 at O’Connor Park
Referee: James McGrath (Westmeath)
Betting: Offaly 7/4 Draw 10/1 Waterford 8/15

Offaly: J Dempsey; C McDonald, D Kenny, D Mooney; R Hanniffy, G Healion, D Morkan; B Carroll, K Brady; C Egan, D Molloy, C Slevin; S Dooley, D Currams, J Bergin.

Waterford: S O’Keeffe; S Fives, L Lawlor, N Connors; J Nagle, M Walsh, D Fives; P Prendergast, K Moran; J Dillon, S Prendergast, S O’Sullivan; J Barron, M Shanahan, B O’Sullivan.