Grounds for optimism but no shock in store - Munster final preview

Forewarned is forearmed. The maroon and white rising turned the championship upside down for the first time since 2004 and gives this Munster final an added twist.

While Waterford can garner some grains of hope out of it, Tipp will be wary to avoid the sluggish start that cost Kilkenny so dearly. The result also dictates the path to the second Sunday in September. The Cats now lurk on the same side of the draw as the Munster champions so defeat at the weekend still leaves either side well placed for a run to the All Ireland final. Waterford can never afford to take provincial titles with a pinch of salt however considering a return of nine wins in 26 attempts. Tipperary will also look to keep the winning habit going and take the shortest route possible.

That’s all before we even mention the seven scars of July 10, 2011. Water has passed under the bridge in the meantime. Tipperary couldn’t reach those heights again when they hit Croke Park and for various reasons Lar Corbett has only struck one championship goal since his romp of 4-4 by the Lee. Waterford have undergone a change of management (almost twice you could say) and playing staff. Only eight survivors will line up to get a shot at redemption this weekend. The demons have been buried according to the players but what if they slip into arrears early doors?

They regained their composure last summer against Galway but Tipperary are also showing signs of recovery from their September disappointment. The contrast in pace, intensity and skill between the respective semi finals was evident although the scoring came much easier at Pairc Ui Chaoimh. With Patrick Maher and Lar Corbett back to bolster the attack, the pieces of puzzle are starting to fit once more. The combination play that led to Noel McGrath’s goal was also reminiscent of the 2010 All Ireland final. They emerged from two different tests on the right side but also kept something in reserve for later in the year.

Up until 1998, Waterford had only tasted success against them on five occasions in 32 championship clashes. That relationship changed when Gerald McCarthy arrived and turned over the side that had come up a point short to Clare the previous September. Then, Justin McCarthy enjoyed an almost unblemished record in his dealings with Tipperary. At the start of last decade, The Premier suffered more than most as a result of their neighbours’ rise up the hurling ladder. From 2002 to 2008, Waterford won four of the five championship meetings between the counties. That breakthrough semi final success cut deepest of all from a Tipperary perspective.  Physical trainer at the time Cian O’Neill recalled it vividly in an interview with Kieran Shannon. “That day it felt as if we had been hit by a bus. My personal goal after that was to up our contact level — being able to initiate contact and deal with contact — because we were physically bullied that day.” They made no mistake a year later. Six minutes into the second half the lead soared to eleven. at Semple Stadium The winning margin ended up as five points and that increased to seven in the All Ireland semi final of 2010. Last year’s massacre brought their goal return up to 14 in the space of three games. And if the goals don’t kill you, the points will. They reeled off 31 of them in March when the defence collectively took a step back.

On that basis how can Waterford bridge the gap that has opened up in recent seasons? The semi final offered some telling pointers. Cork created a number of genuine goal chances and exposed frailties in the Tipperary full back division. An extra bit of awareness and the presence of a killer instinct would have reaped a greater reward from those openings. Even without raising a green flag, their inside line managed to rack up eight points from play along with earning several scoreable frees. It remains to be seen if Sunday’s encounter will take on the end to end nature of that game but pace and clever movement put them under pressure last time out. Between them John Mullane and Shane Walsh can lay claim to 21 championship goals and can make gains on Conor O’Brien and Paul Curran.

This leads to another telling question. How can Waterford manage to deliver quality ball inside and break down an imposing half back line? Thomas Stapleton alongside double All Star winners Conor O’Mahony and Padraic Maher form Tipperary’s strongest line and have all come up trumps in the heat of battle so far. All three can fetch ball out of the clouds so Stephen O’Keeffe may need to vary his puck-out strategy and make clever use of Seamus Prendergast as a target. Clearances out of the defence also require that extra bit of thought. The Ardmore man cannot operate alone however and much will hinge on how much change Maurice Shanahan and Pauric Mahony can get from their markers. Or will the rotation of the forward line continue in a similar vein to what we witnessed against Clare in an attempt to unsettle the Tipp rearguard?

Midfield also offers promise. Stephen Molumphy played a starring role last month and, with Brendan Maher and Shane McGrath still not back to the peaks they hit a couple years ago, it may be an area to zone in on. The Ballyduff Upper man offloaded possession in a more brisk manner than we are accustomed to seeing in the last couple of seasons. He executed several direct stick passes into the forward line and one of those led to Shane Walsh’s goal. Instead of running into traffic, Molumphy always seemed to pick up the right position and use possession effectively to drive the team forward. Another energetic seventy minutes will be called for on Sunday.

Michael Ryan can pinpoint all of these areas but he is coming up against a Tipperary outfit brimming with confidence and laden with players that can fall back on strong records in previous championship ties with the Déise. Noel McGrath routinely enjoys that extra bit of room at centre forward which Brick Walsh will need to address this time around. Lar Corbett has accumulated 8-12 in seven games while John O’Brien finished with six points to his credit in the 2010 All Ireland semi final. Then you have Pa Bourke emerging as a player that can hit double digits after taking over the free taking duties from Eoin Kelly. If they unexpectedly hit the rocks, Declan Ryan can always glance over his shoulder and turn to Seamus Callanan, Kelly or Shane Bourke.

So many elements need to fall into place for a shock to occur and the form lines offer little indication of that coming to pass.  Galway finished up with 2-21 and Waterford may need to match that to haul themselves into contention. On championship days against the top two in recent seasons they have relied on one or two forwards to carry the load and again this won’t suffice considering Tipp’s firepower. The likes of Cyril Donnellan, David Burke and Niall Burke all contributed handsomely last weekend to ease the burden placed on Joe Canning. In a similar fashion, Waterford require four or five forwards to throw over a couple of points from play. But even if they do shoot the lights out up front how can they keep a lid on the array of attacking potential at the other end?

Remember also that this is Tipperary’s fourth year of seriously competing with Kilkenny. The underdogs may ask questions and give Declan Ryan some headaches, even in year one of this latest project, but just not enough to bridge that gap. After 2008, the pendulum swung back towards the men in blue and gold and they have taken the spoils rather convincingly for the last three years. The handicap lies at six points and Tipperary should really be eyeing that up as the clock ticks down. Galway put colour back into a black and white hurling championship but that upset surely put Tipp on red alert. Waterford should improve on their semi final showing but don’t appear ready just yet to take a huge scalp. 

Munster SHC Final
Tipperary v Waterford
Throw in 4.00 at Pairc Ui Chaoimh
Referee: Cathal McAllister (Cork)

Betting:
Tipperary 1/5 Draw 14/1 Waterford 9/2

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