A Cork v Kerry All Ireland semi final appeared set in stone long before Mayo even took the field last Sunday. Thinking ahead that extra step allowed Cork’s concentration to drift and James Horan’s side pounced. Similarly in hurling circles a third successive Kilkenny v Tipperary All Ireland final looms large.
In 2005 Galway blocked the path of a hat trick of Kilkenny v Cork deciders. In this year’s semi final pairings Waterford are given the better chance in performing the role of party pooper for the big two. Moving forward from third place in the hurling rankings to earning a shot at the September 4 final is a significant leap however. Kilkenny eased through Leinster with eleven point victories over both Wexford and Dublin while no team has come closer than eight points to the reigning champions in Munster. Meanwhile Waterford and Dublin have proved the best of the rest but only wins over Limerick and Galway count as their significant scalps. Which all leads to the odds of 13/2 about the Déise this Sunday.
With the burden of the Munster final removed from their shoulders after the Galway recovery a competitive performance lies in wait. Davy and this panel of players demand more however as reflected in the manager’s comments in Thurles a fortnight ago. “What’s the story now we just turn up and get beaten in a semi final is that the story? Or do we go out and give it everything again?” A repeat of the application and hunger shown in the quarter final will be seen as a minimum requirement but how will the team set up tactically for another monumental challenge? For a start a vote of confidence should be placed in the same fifteen that started last time out.
Will Davy bring players deep to stay in the game early on or revert to a traditional formation? Either way a lively start in the manner of the Galway game or a scrappy, low scoring opening would suffice. The midfield and half forward line need to provide a platform for possession. Michael Fennelly and Michael Rice present an All Star centre field pairing while Tommy Walsh and company won’t be as easily shaken as the Galway combination. If midfield and Seamus Prendergast in particular break even or better then profiting on the form of Shane Walsh, who has scored 2-6 in championship 2011, becomes a key component. Not only did he strike two goals against JJ Delaney in 2009, his goal at Nowlan Park in April was one of the best in the National League. As Tipperary proved definitively in last year’s All Ireland final Kilkenny’s full back line remains a point opposition teams can target. Rory Jacob in this year’s Leinster semi final found those gaps but couldn’t translate them into goals. Pauric Mahony’s placed ball accuracy also needs to be maintained as Paul Flynn and Eoin Kelly clocked up big totals in the semi finals of 2004 and 2009 but still didn’t emerge on the winning team.
Despite these rays of encouragement building a case for a Kilkenny victory makes for a much easier argument. While the five week lay off may take the edge off their sharpness a quick glimpse at their semi final record paints a different picture. 11 wins in 13 semi finals since 1998 tell that particular tale. Waterford’s record stands at 1 win and seven defeats since 1998. Kilkenny will look to put this one to bed at an early stage in a similar fashion to last year’s semi final meeting with Cork. Isolating Henry Shefflin at full forward against Waterford may be one way of doing so. In the 2009 encounter the Ballyhale man ran riot against Aiden Kearney scoring 1-14(1-6 from play). 3-26 in three championship games against Waterford is another startling reminder of his threat. The forward unit as a whole demonstrated in Leinster that they are still as lethal as ever. They hit the 29 point mark on both occasions and a similar target would prove difficult to reach for the Waterford attack.
They build this attacking platform with dominance at midfield and the half back line. The centre field warfare brings together two formidable pairings. Michael Fennelly powers his way through the 70 minutes while Michael Rice poses an attacking threat with 1-6 banked to date. Winning or losing this battle will prove a determining factor but Moran and O’Sullivan possess the physicality and hurling ability to stand up. Other clashes like Prendergast v Walsh, Mullane v Tyrell, Walsh v Power and Browne v Larkin all promise sparks if they materialise but if form and recent meetings are anything to go by Kilkenny hold the edge in most of these duels.
Other small factors also come into consideration. The Croke Park factor counts as one. Sunday’s game marks Kilkenny’s fourth visit to GAA headquarters this year while Waterford make their first appearance since last year’s semi final and have to look back to 2008 for their last win. Barry Kelly’s appointment as referee will result in close monitoring of his decisions after Davy Fitzgerald questioned his display in the 2009 edition. “There was a free given on the sideline for a shoulder at a crucial time, while we got pulverised by a few shoulders ourselves. How does this happen to the big teams? I’m not giving out about Kilkenny. They are an awesome team and deserve respect, they’re worthy All-Ireland champions. You need a fella to stand up with a bit of balls and ref the thing. That’s being honest.”
The unspoken fear is that Kilkenny will strike early and often. While this fear factor, that accompanied the four in a row side, still operates it's not to the same degree. The importance of riding out the bad patches and staying within striking distance is paramount and this means keeping the goals out and also scoring two or three at the other end. While Waterford possess enough elements to make it an uncomfortable afternoon the evidence suggests that this may prove a step too far. Power, accuracy and determination to qualify for another crack at Tipperary should sustain Brian Cody’s men and ensure a five point win against a stiff Waterford resistance similar to 2009.
Blue and White GAA Starting Fifteen: Clinton Hennessy, Darragh Fives, Liam Lawlor, Noel Connors, Tony Browne, Michael Walsh, David O’Sullivan, Kevin Moran, Shane O’Sullivan, Seamus Prendergast, John Mullane, Pauric Mahony, Eoin Kelly, Shane Walsh, Stephen Molumphy.
All Ireland Semi Final
Kilkenny v Waterford
Throw in 3.30 at Croke Park
Referee: Barry Kelly (Westmeath)
Betting:
Kilkenny 1/9 Draw 18/1 Waterford 13/2
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