Saturday 22 March 2014

Learning to move forward - Kilkenny v Waterford preview


 
On second viewing of the Cusack Park collapse, the puckout stats from the first half revealed astonishingly that Waterford broke even at 15 apiece.

They won the first six but for a twenty minute spell, Clare soaked up twice as many as their opponents. The attacks that Waterford did mount fizzled out as they were brushed off the ball and dispossessed all too easily. If the inside ball didn’t stick immediately, a flick away by the defender was enough to deal with the danger as cover arrived to complete the clearance. Two short balls into the goalkeeper and four wides also showed a certain wastage of the scraps thrown inside. Making more damaging incisions on Sunday will be high on the agenda for the management team as much as papering over the defensive cracks. With heat applied to the forward by Banner backs, hasty decisions and turnovers resulted. 18 minutes passed (between the seventh and 25th) without a strike at the posts.

The lone success story was Brian O’Sullivan who troubled his marker Domhnaill O’Donovan and managed four shots in that first half. His goal chance materialised from a short puck out that Stephen O’Keeffe played to Shane Fives on 21 minutes. The number three drilled it down the tracks for O’Sullivan to gather and turn for goal. Considering the forward line selected for Sunday (shorn of Seamus Prendergast) and the success of that patient strategy against Kilkenny in league and championship last year, it may be the plan adopted to repair the damage. Derek McGrath will also hope to make use of the direct running of Kevin Moran from deep (relieved from centre back duties) and Maurice Shanahan closer to goal. Along with O’Sullivan, Shanahan’s play count reached double figures as possession stuck on his introduction. Even with just two half chances for goals, Waterford generated 36 opportunities. Ten wides accumulated, five attempts fell short and Maurice Shanahan saw his 21 metre free stopped.

John Mullane voiced his concern during the week in The Star about the Pauric Mahony's solitary green flag in 280 minutes of league action. "We don't look like scoring a goal and we don't look like threatening a goal - that would be a big worry. The reasons for that is that Waterford are playing kind of a defensive game at the moment and I think to progress in the summer, to have a chance of silverware, they're going to have to find a way to score goals." The attacking reshuffle made on Friday night suggests subtle changes. Without the direct Seamus Prendergast option, using the pace of Shanahan, O'Sullivan and company to take on their markers appears the only way to get in behind a home defence that has leaked eight league goals. Mullane urged an injection of speed. "Derek and his team are going to have to find players that have speed and mobility to get up and down if they're to go the same route they're going."

The vote of confidence given to the defence comes as no surprise. The lack of protection last weekend and their level of security in the first three rounds merited another trial. The individual error count must tumble however. Four Clare points were completely avoidable. Two early turnovers in the red zone saw Podge Collins and Shane O’Donnell capitalise. A free came against Philip Mahony while in possession and then a short puckout went astray for another Collins point.

Michael Walsh returns to shield Shane Fives but he will encounter a Colin Fennelly conundrum. The 24 year old has stepped up with 4-6 so far to ease the burden on the more established names. A steady stream has also arrived from Walter Walsh in each game (eleven points in total). Rookies Mark Kelly and Jonjo Farrell are also bedding in. And if anyone needed reminding that Henry Shefflin is ready to attack 2014, just watch his first 70 minutes against Clare.

Cody has cast an eye over 30 players thus far. Make that 31 when JJ Delaney makes his seasonal reappearance. Delaney and Jackie Tyrell pin down the central defensive slots among seven changes from the Dublin defeat. While Tommy Walsh has been substituted at half time in two games, his brother Padraic has burst into life for UL and Kilkenny. His all action style can be best deployed at midfield and he can also pop a point or two.

Their away defeats arrived of the narrow variety to Clare (one) and Dublin (three). They made a big statement in forcing a 16 point turnabout against Tipp before a more subdued one to follow-up with Galway. The loosely defined role of Colin Fennelly and the newer faces are offering a different dynamic but it remains to be seen conclusively whether Cody’s template moves away from the tried and trusted.

Waterford will aim to mount the barriers from the floodwater and avoid too much aerial combat. Given the role that Jamie Barron filled for UCC this year, he will look to carry ball from midfield along with Stephen Molumphy. Pauric Mahony meets Jackie Tyrell and whoever emerges more prominently may determine the inroads made on the Kilkenny goal. Interventions by Paul Murphy, Delaney and Tyrell will be greeted with gusto by the Nowlan Park faithful. Keeping them quiet requires a discipline from the visitors to persist with sneaking around the sides even if it does lead to frustrating inaccuracy at times.

A shootout situation no longer suits Waterford down to the ground. With this in mind, the figures thrown up by Shanahan and O’Sullivan in particular are crucial in fashioning a total to trouble Kilkenny. As shown below, Waterford are reliant on Pauric Mahony for 54 per cent of their scores. The gulf between Mahony (1-37) and club colleague Brian O’Sullivan in second place (0-6) raises an alarm. The leading marksman in the league and Kevin Moran stand as the only two players to register in every game.

Kilkenny’s scores are more evenly distributed between 14 different sources with Colin Fennelly and Walter Walsh making a significant input. In the four games to work from, Kilkenny average 24 points with Waterford around 18 points. The goal column stands at ten to one in favour of the Cats. This all indicates a Kilkenny win but perhaps within the five point handicap. A narrow defeat would mean calling in favours from Anthony Daly and Davy Fitzgerald to deal with Tipperary and Galway. After running the rule over 26 players and collecting two home wins, a relegation play-off hardly spells disaster but greater peace of mind defensively and an efficiency attacking strategy should be on the checklist for Sunday.

Kilkenny Scorers

Henry Shefflin 1-17 (13fs, 2 65s)
Colin Fennelly 4-6
Walter Walsh 0-11
TJ Reid 1-7 (1-0 pen, 4fs)
Richie Hogan 1-6 (1f)
Mark Kelly 2-1
Padraig Walsh 0-5
John Power 1-1
Eoin Larkin 0-4 (3fs, 1 65’)
Jonjo Farrell 0-3
Geoff Brennan 0-3
Cillian Buckley 0-1
Richie Power 0-1
Aidan Fogarty 0-1

Waterford Scorers

Pauric Mahony 1-37 (27fs, 1 65’)
Brian O’Sullivan 0-6
Ray Barry 0-4
Seamus Prendergast 0-4
Kevin Moran 0-4
Maurice Shanahan 0-4 (2fs)
Ryan Donnelly 0-3
Stephen Molumphy 0-3
Philip Mahony 0-2
Stephen Roche 0-2
Jake Dillon 0-2

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