Get out the calculators - Waterford SHC Round 5 Previews

 

The permutations for the final round of fixtures are numerous. Every team goes into this weekend with a mathematical chance of progress to the quarter finals. Let’s deal with the certainties first. Fourmilewater and De La Salle are through from Group 1 with Lismore the only team assured of a last eight berth in Group 2. Scoring difference and head to head records all come into the equation. Each goal and point counts on a weekend like this. Who knew the group stages could be this exciting?

If the predictions below translate into results, Dungarvan, Ballygunner, Ballyduff, Mount Sion and Tallow will all progress. This would leave Dunhill and Passage in the relegation play-off. There is also the possibility of De La Salle and Ballygunner squaring off in the quarters if results pan out in a certain way. By Sunday evening, this forecast could all turn to the dust however!

1 September

Ballygunner v Lismore (6.30 at Fraher Field) Group 1
Can Lismore finally banish their bogey team on Saturday night? After picking up two early wins, they settled for draws against Passage and Abbeyside. The Shanahans and the Prendergast are in top form but the serious questions centre on the spine of their defence and whether it can hold up to rigorous examination. A win for the Gunners guarantees their passage and if the big names return they can continue to leave Lismore in their slipstream.
Odds: Ballygunner 8/13 Draw 9/1 Lismore 11/8
Prediction: Ballygunner

Dungarvan v Passage (6.30 at Leamybrien) Group 1
If the Blues possessed a predator in their inside line, they would be safely in the knock out stages at this point. As things stand, they need another result to make sure of their progress. If they can stifle the goal threat that Passage present, they should put the issue to bed and reverse last year’s result in this fixture.
Odds: Dungarvan Evens Draw 8/1 Passage 10/11
Prediction: Dungarvan

Ballyduff Upper v Abbeyside (6.30 at Cappoquin) Group 1
A few short years ago, these two were contesting county semi finals but both have regressed in recent seasons. It’s difficult to gauge where they stand in this year’s race. If Ballyduff can replicate the fire shown in the Ballygunner game, they can sneak a win at a venue where they hold a good record. The Reds will also be looking for a couple of favours in other games around the county.
Odds: Ballyduff 13/8 Draw 9/1 Abbeyside 8/15
Prediction: Ballyduff Upper

2 September

Fourmilewater v Tallow (3.30 at Fraher Field) Group 2

Table toppers Fourmilewater cannot be knocked off that perch at this stage but, as evidenced from the football championship a fortnight ago, that doesn’t mean they will ease up. Last year’s runners-up blow hot and cold from week to week and need Thomas Ryan and Paul O’Brien to stand up and help the likes of William Henley and Kieran Geary who have been their stand out performers so far. On three points at present, Tallow may face an anxious wait at full time to learn their fate but their scoring difference should stand to them.
Odds: Fourmilewater 1/5 Draw 12/1 Tallow 7/2
Prediction: Fourmilewater

De La Salle v Dunhill (3.30 at Carraiganore) Group 2
Since losing to Fourmile, the two time champions dismantled Tallow by 23 points before dishing out a 26 point hammering to Roanmore. Dunhill have put up stern resistance in all their games to date but defeat here would probably mean a relegation scrap is on the cards.
Odds: De La Salle 1/25 Draw 28/1 Dunhill 8/1
Prediction: De La Salle

Mount Sion v Roanmore (3.30 at Walsh Park) Group 2
The pick of the bunch in terms of the Sunday fixtures and expect a fiery tussle between these local rivals. The equation is simple for Sion – win and they will qualify for the last eight. Owen Whelan and Martin O’Neill showed the required mettle to get past Tallow in round 4 and they should have enough quality around the field to complete the recovery mission here. The Sky Blues can also advance but may need to rely on other results.
Odds: Mount Sion 2/9 Draw 12/1 Roanmore 10/3
Prediction: Mount Sion

Waterford SFC Top Scorers 2012 (After Round 5)

1. J.J. Hutchinson (Gaultier) 2-22

2. Donie Breathnach (An Rinn) 0-25

3. Edmond Hogan (Rathgormack) 2-15

4. Gary Hurney (Ballinacourty) 1-17

    Paul Whyte (Kilrossanty) 2-14
    Joey Veale (Kilrossanty) 4-8

7.Carthach Shalloe (Brickey Rangers) 0-17

8.Clinton Hennessy (Ardmore) 0-16

   Shane Walsh (The Nire) 0-16
   Ryan Donnelly (Dungarvan) 1-13

Dust settles on the group stages - Waterford SFC Round 5 In Brief

The final round of fixtures served up a bit more spice than predicted as the quarter final pairings and relegation issues were decided.

At Walsh Park, a high scoring shoot-out developed between Gaultier and St Saviours. Gaultier led by 1-5 to 0-5 at the break but needed to battle all the way to grind out a one point win. A kick of the ball also separated the sides at Fraher Field. Goals in each half from Christopher Murphy and Laurence Houlihan pushed Brickey Rangers over the line. Dungarvan and Saviours will now meet in the relegation play-off on the weekend of September 22/23.

The Nire were the only team to emerge from the group phase with an unbeaten record as they steamrolled Rathgormack on Saturday evening. Jamie Barron and Connie Power supplied the goals while Liam Lawlor kicked four points from play. Ballinacourty also enjoyed a fourteen point winning margin over Ardmore as John Gorman and Conor Moloney found the net. They finished second in Group 1.

In Group 2, Stradbally took second spot as they upped the tempo after half time to account for 14 man An Rinn in a fractious affair. The Gaeltacht side held a slender 0-4 to 0-3 advantage at the interval but that red card swung the pendulum towards the Reds. In Bushy Park, Darren Mulhearne saved an injury time penalty to put an end to Clashmore’s winning streak. The quarter finals will go ahead on the weekend of September 22/23

Quarter finals
The Nire v Kilrossanty
Ballinacourty v An Rinn
Clashmore v Rathgormack
Stradbally v Ardmore

Round 5 Results:
Group 1
The Nire 2-14 Rathgormack 0-6
Ballinacourty 2-16 Ardmore 0-8
Gaultier 2-10 St Saviours 0-15

Group 2
Brickey Rangers 2-8 Dungarvan 0-11
Stradbally 1-10 An Rinn 0-8
Kilrossanty 0-10 Clashmore 0-7

Tuning up for the big gigs ahead

Eight of the twelve teams already know their fate going into the last round of group games. The only two imponderables are where they will finish in the group and who will they meet in the last eight. If it is cut throat football you’re after then Walsh Park and Fraher Field will be the two venues to target. It may not provide free flowing fare but at least there will be a competitive edge. For the rest, it is matter of building up some momentum for the quarters and avoiding injury at all costs.

Round 5 Previews
18 August
Ballinacourty v Ardmore (7.00 at Fraher Field) Group 1
Without any great fanfare, Ardmore have bagged three wins from four games and are building steadily for the quarters. Ballinacourty need to find a spark from somewhere and last week’s scare may fire them into action.
Prediction: Ballinacourty

Gaultier v St Saviours (7.00 at Walsh Park) Group 1
This promises to be a tense affair with a low winning total likely. Gaultier carry the better form into it on the back of their resolute display against Ballinacourty and if JJ Hutchinson receives sufficient supply they should come out on top.
Prediction: Gaultier

The Nire v Rathgormack (7.00 at Leamybrien) Group 1
Nothing at stake for the championship favourites but Rathgormack will be keen to arrest a recent slide. At the same time, The Nire didn’t hold back last weekend and retain enough scoring power to prevail.
Prediction: The Nire

19 August
Clashmore v Kilrossanty (7.00 at Bushy Park) Group 2
The outcome of this clash will do nothing to alter the final standings. Clashmore will top the group and Kilrossanty will finish fourth. Remarkably, both sides hold almost identical scoring and concession records. Five out of five for Clashmore perhaps?
Prediction: Kilrossanty

Stradbally v An Rinn (7.00 at Leamybrien) Group 2
The winner of this one secures second spot in Group 2. An Rinn battled valiantly without a number of regulars last weekend but Stradbally are beginning to get up to speed with Robert Ahearne in top form.
Prediction: Stradbally

Brickey Rangers v Dungarvan (7.00 at Fraher Field) Group 2
It’s difficult to argue for either side. Brickeys have failed to score more than eight points in their games to date and are also without a goal. Dungarvan’s dual commitments have resulted in a series of below par displays culminating in a hefty 17 point defeat on Wednesday night. Brickeys went toe to toe with Stradbally for thirty minutes and that steeliness along with Conor McGrath’s return may be sufficient to beat the drop.
Prediction: Brickey Rangers

Quarter final picture becomes clearer - Waterford SFC Round 4 In Brief

After the completion of five round 4 fixtures over the weekend, seven teams have qualified for the quarter final stages. The final round of games next weekend will only serve to clarify the standings in the two groups and iron out relegation matters

In Group 1, The Nire guaranteed their progress as group winners with a 14 point demolition of St Saviours at Walsh Park. Ardmore moved into second position by disposing of Rathgormack in a low scoring affair on Friday night. Things were less straightforward for Ballinacourty as they were pushed all the way by Gaultier. Barry Mullane and JJ Hutchinson cracked home goals for the Eastern outfit but Gary and Patrick Hurney weighed in heavily at the other end to move Courty into the knockout rounds. The final round of fixtures will determine the positions of Ardmore, Rathgormack and Ballinacourty in the group. Gaultier and St Saviours meet next Saturday to decide which team will enter the relegation play-off. Saviours only need a draw to stay afloat.

Clashmore edged past An Rinn on Saturday night to take top spot in Group 2. A Lorcán Ó Cuirrín goal gave the Gaeltacht men an early lead but Clashmore’s efficient forward unit imposed their will led by the likes of Tadhg Bourke, Cillian O’Keeffe and Brian O’Halloran. They established a five point cushion in the second period and held out after that. A burst of 1-2 in the space of two minutes before half time saw Stradbally get the better of Brickey Rangers. Robert Ahearne, Niall Curran and David Grey all raised green flags to ease their passage to the next stage. They will encounter An Rinn in round 5 and that game will resolve which team finishes second or third. Kilrossanty’s clash with Dungarvan has been rescheduled for Wednesday night. If John Kiely’s side prevail, they will grab the last quarter final spot and finish in fourth position. A Kilrossanty win would also result in a quarter final date with The Nire. The Brickeys are pencilled in for a fifth round game against Dungarvan next Sunday evening and the loser will fall into the relegation play-off.

Round 4 Results:

Group 1
Ardmore 1-8 Rathgormack 0-6
Ballinacourty 0-15 Gaultier 2-7
The Nire 1-16 St Saviours 0-5

Group 2
Clashmore 0-14 An Rinn 1-10
Stradbally 3-11 Brickey Rangers 0-7

The race for the Conway Cup resumes

The story so far is that The Nire, Clashmore and An Rinn are all assured of their quarter final places. Stradbally, Kilrossanty, Ardmore, Rathgormack and Ballinacourty stand one win away from the last eight while St Saviours, Gaultier, Brickey Rangers and Dungarvan look to be in relegation territory.

The Nire may have made all the early running but the real championship begins when the knockout stages begin. Round one offered some entertainment value with both Ballinacourty and Stradbally coming a cropper. Unlike the hurling equivalent, things quickly settled down after that. The new format of the six team groups brings extra games for all but delay the inevitable for many. The lack of appetite for these games is reflected by the attendances. At the very least the group winners should be guaranteed a passage to the semi finals with the second and third placed teams entering the quarters. Under the current format, many teams can progress with only two wins to their name.

On an encouraging note, teams like Clashmore, An Rinn and Rathgormack appear to be bridging the gap to the top three. Whether they can maintain that form through to the knockout rounds remains to be seen. The other positive news on the scoring front is that 38 goals have been registered in 18 games. The average winning total is also up around the 15 point bracket.

Round 4 Previews

10 August
Rathgormack v Ardmore (7.30 at Fraher Field) Group 1
Both sides are almost certain of qualification but require another win to make absolutely sure. Rathgormack got off to a flyer against Ballinacourty and despite experiencing a dip in form, they remain unbeaten. Ardmore always give a good account of themselves and recovered well after a second half fadeout against The Nire. In a close run thing, Edmond Hogan and company should prevail.
Odds: Rathgormack 8/13 Draw 13/2 Ardmore 13/8             
Prediction: Rathgormack

11 August
Gaultier v Ballinacourty (5.30 at Walsh Park) Group 1
The signs are ominous for the Eastern outfit. Courty posted 3-17 last weekend in the league and they hold the upper hand in this fixture as evidenced by a 14 point winning margin in the quarters last year. The holders need to collect the points on offer and shake off their wobbly start in the process.
Odds: Gaultier 4/1 Draw 9/1 Ballinacourty 1/5
Prediction: Ballincourty

The Nire v St Saviours (7.00 at Walsh Park) Group 1
A rare visit to Walsh Park for The Nire but it shouldn’t disrupt their winning momentum. Despite claiming a notable draw against Rathgormack, Saviours may need to rely on more relegation play off heroics to drag them out of the mire again.
Odds: The Nire 1/12 Draw 14/1 St Saviours 11/2
Prediction: The Nire

Dungarvan v Kilrossanty (6.00 at Fraher Field) Group 2
Kilrossanty’s season hangs in the balance. Victory sends them to the last eight but stumble to a shock reversal and a relegation battle looms large. The boot of Paul Whyte should guide them clear of danger and past the winless Blues.
Odds: Dungarvan 15/8 Draw 7/1 Kilrossanty 1/2
Prediction: Kilrossanty

An Rinn v Clashmore (7.30 at Fraher Field) Group 2
The clash of the form sides in Group 2 who have attacking flair in abundance. Two unblemished records are also on the line so something has got to give. The Clashmore rearguard looks that bit more robust and Fleming, O’Halloran and O’Keeffe can do the damage at the other end in what promises to be an open contest.
Odds: An Rinn 10/11 Draw 13/2 Clashmore 11/10
Prediction: Clashmore

12 August
Brickey Rangers v Stradbally (7.00 at Fraher Field) Group 2
A tough assignment for the Brickeys who are rooted to the bottom of the group without a win or even a goal to their name. The Reds appear to be operating at a notch or two below their best and another victory here still won’t make those doubts disappear.
Odds: Brickeys 11/2 Draw 14/1 Stradbally 1/10
Prediction: Stradbally

Caught in the middle – Cork 1-19 Waterford 0-19

So in the end the constant chopping and changing worked in Jimmy Barry Murphy’s favour. He still can’t be certain over his starting fifteen but he can depend on his twenty. Most importantly of all, the right players were on the field in the last ten minutes and their main men (Patrick Horgan and Séan Óg Ó hAilpín among them) also stood up to be counted.

Quarter final elimination leaves Waterford cast adrift as the final four press on towards the road to Croker. Stuck in the middle of nowhere. It’s an unfamiliar feeling and a painful one to take in especially as victory appeared tantalisingly close. So lots of ifs, buts and maybes in the aftermath and it makes the year difficult to summarise. “You don’t look on it as a failure but we are obviously not happy” was what Stephen Molumphy made of it all. The bright spots and the shortcomings of this season were all wrapped in to these seventy minutes.

Cork moved far more briskly on the line. As they fell further adrift, Jimmy Barry Murphy unloaded four substitutes in the space of fourteen minutes but there was method to the apparent madness. Cathal Naughton put his searing speed to good use against Tony Browne, John Gardiner got a handle on Seamus Prendergast and Darren Sweetnam shored up the middle and also made a lung bursting run to tee up a point for Luke O’Farrell. Even taking Conor Lehane’s late withdrawal into account, he could pick and mix from a wealth of options. William Egan didn’t even see a minute of action.

Through the league and championship, Cork have developed the strength of their panel. They put it into practice when it really mattered, which was in stark contrast to their opponents despite the fact that Waterford have also given opportunities to a wide variety of players this season. During a mini injury crisis in the spring time, Dean Twomey, Martin O’Neill and Gavin O’Brien all received valuable minutes that would stand them in good stead come championship. Or so we thought. All three could only watch on as the lead unravelled while other viable alternatives like Wayne Hutchinson, David O’Sullivan and Jamie Nagle were also ignored. Cork used all five substitutes while Waterford only gave a proper run to two because Richie Foley came with a minute of normal time remaining. Those fresher legs and minds told in the end. On the other hand, maybe Jimmy Barry Murphy had nothing to lose and Waterford would find it hard to make sweeping changes after establishing a commanding cushion. The pecking order for the substitutions that they did implement is most puzzling of all however.

The goals issue began to surface as Davy Fitzgerald’s tenure wore on and it has carried forward into 2012. Michael Ryan acknowledged this and he rattled off a telling statistic in his post match interview. “I think we have only scored six goals in eight games this year and that’s not good enough.” If you take the championship goals of John Mullane and Shane Walsh out of the equation, the other four starting forwards can only account for three goals and Seamus Prendergast’s last championship major came back in 2005. Donal O’Grady threw it out there on the The Sunday Game that it was a carbon copy of the lack of composure displayed in the Munster final and cited Shane Casey’s effort for a point as an example.

And then we come on to why Waterford can’t seem to close out games. Two points in the last ten against Clare, two in the Munster final and just a single point on Sunday signify an abject return in a crucial phase of the game. Even in the league win over Galway, a rousing Shane Walsh point was required to douse a home comeback. Nothing broke the rhythm on this occasion. The Eoin McGrath chance will be mentioned but the covering Cork defender made it far from a cast iron green flag. The loss of Walsh undoubtedly caused disruption up front as Waterford had to carry on without the focal point of their attack. The Rebel rearguard also grew in confidence as a result. A couple of point opportunities were also coughed up to extend the lead further and that left the door open for a comeback. The Cork subs settled and they chipped away with points to narrow the gap. A nerveless long distance free from Maurice Shanahan interrupted that run but there was no way back however after Séan Óg’s point. Ryan dismissed fitness as a factor in another late fadeout. “I just think that they had the momentum behind them, they were playing with the wind and they came from behind. It certainly wasn’t a lack of fitness or anything like that, it was just momentum.”

So that’s where Waterford fell short but so much fell into place. They played their best hurling of the season in that dazzling spell before the interval. Mullane was a like a man possessed as he caught puck outs, laid on points for fun and earned frees. After Pa Cronin caused some early headaches, the half back line and midfield drove things forward, led superbly by the two standout players of the championship in Kevin Moran and Stephen Molumphy. Although Cork led at the break, Waterford were back in the mix. Up front, Pauric Mahony looked sharp, Seamus Prendergast put in another hard shift while Shane Walsh played through the pain barrier to strike two points. Maurice Shanahan benefitted from the move to the full forward line and offered assurance on the frees. They moved into the optimum position down the home straight but couldn’t kick on.

Not quite the excitement of Cork and Waterford games in the past despite the fact that the tempo lifted towards the end of both halves. The topsy turvy conditions accounted for some that. In truth, nobody expected a classic. Rough edges appeared on both sides and Jimmy Barry Murphy realises that a mountain of work faces the victors to get set for Galway in a couple of weeks.

It’s back to the bread and butter now for the remainder of the summer and into the autumn. A different routine to grow accustomed to after years of pitching up in Croke Park with dreams of September. 2012 brought turbulence, stability and ultimately regrets. Sounds a bit like Sunday’s game really.